Disruption

In the year of our Lord 2009, or the year of the gasoline-powered automobile 123, a reputable energy research firm writes, "Petroleum will still be the dominant fuel for the transportation sector 25 years from now. No truly disruptive technologies are yet on the horizon, and today’s alternative fuels and technologies can only gain market share slowly owing to the slow turnover of the capital stock of cars, trucks, and airplanes that use petroleum." Fair enough.

Nevertheless, I am very worried. I work in the oil business. I know how to operate machinery that makes gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel from petroleum. My fiance's skills are not very different from mine. If the prediction above turns out to be just wishful thinking, we can kiss our careers good-bye.

One well-regarded business personality, Andy Grove, has suggested that gasoline and automobiles are headed for a divorce. Another rather dynamic business personality, Shai Agassi, has made it his life's mission to help that divorce along on its way, through Better Place. The sage of Omaha has at some point invested in BYD.

I am beginning to be convinced. One really smart or really persistent inventor comes up with a cheap, long-range battery, and the gasoline house comes tumbling down. Even otherwise, today's batteries will grow into cheap, long-range batteries over time. Electrification moves the pollution from an untamable mass of individual voters to a power plant that you can point at and shoot. It comes with potential improvements in efficiency of energy use, carbon capture and carbon subsitution. It is easier to build a solar power plant than to put a solar panel on everybody's car. Guilty drivers who can afford it will gleefully swap a smoky tailpipe for a zero-emission battery electric.

Something is afoot. Our kids will drive to their jobs in cars that are very different. Perhaps, we will drive to our jobs in cars that are very different. Perhaps, my fiance and I will need jobs that are very different.

Anybody buying the Tesla Roadster?